The culmination of a year worth of work has led to this night that will see some great winners and lots of fun. And for once, although there are some locked categories...there is also a wide open Best Picture race...but we'll save that for the end.Let's start with the Supporting Actors....
Christian Bale, The Big Short
Tom Hardy, The Revenant
Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
Sylvester Stallone, Creed
Will Win: Sylvester Stallone, Creed
Should Win: Sylvester Stallone, Creed
If There is an Upset: Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
I really was blown away by Stallone in this film. I forgot just how good he could be and here...he blew me away! It should be a recognition for one of the best films of the year. That said...this category is as loaded as possible with GREAT performances. In any other year Mark Rylance might be the favorite, and Hardy is wonderful in The Revenant. Plus I loved Bale and Ruffalo in their films. I can recommend absolutely that when you get a chance....see all FIVE of these films.
Supporting Actress
Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
Rooney Mara, Carol
Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
Will Win: Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl (I loved her in Ex Machina even more!)
Should Win: Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
If There is an Upset: Rooney Mara, Carol
Vikander is just right now finding out how good she is and is ready to break out in a big way. I even think I liked her more in Ex Machina in that difficult role. If I was going to give one, I would lean ever so slightly to Rachel McAdams as I think she was the woman in the predominantly male dominated Spotlight crew and she delivered a range of emotions in the role. But if there is an upset....Rooney Mara's virtual leading role in Carol just may impress those who took the time to see the film. And Kate Winslet...well she's Kate Winslet. While Jennifer Jason Leigh gets beat like no other in the Tarantino film and should win something for the craziness of that character.
Actor
Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
Matt Damon, The Martian
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
Will Win: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Should Win: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
If There is an Upset: There Won't Be / Damon
Look, this is Leo's year. Nuff Said!
Actress
Cate Blanchett, Carol
Brie Larson, Room
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
Will Win: Brie Larson, Room
Should Win: Brie Larson, Room
If There is an Upset: I think Brie is about as locked as Leo...but maybe Cate Blanchett?
I really think that Leo and Brie are on straight path to the stage and their awards. Missing from this is Emily Blunt from Sicario...my favorite film from the year.Best Picture
The Big Short
Bridge of Spies
Brooklyn
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Room
Spotlight
Will Win: Spotlight
Should Win: The Big Short
If There is an Upset: The Big Short / The Revenant / Spotlight .... it could be any one of those films
That's right. For the first year in recent memory...it could be any one of a number of films that walks away with the big prize of the night. I really think the Academy will go for the big actors film in Spotlight. But to me The Big Short finished number 2 on my top 10 this year, so I would love to see it win. Some of the other precursor awards point to The Revenant as well. So who gets it? Well you'll have to get all the way to the end of the show on Sunday to find out.What else do I expect to happen?
- I like Inside Out for Animated Film
- Amy to win Best Documentary ... though I could see Cartel Land
- Adapted Screenplay to The Martian....though there are a number of good candidates there.
- Original Screenplay, wouldn't it be too cool if the Academy recognized the writing genius behind the animated Inside Out? I would love love love to see that.
- Chris Rock will be a solid host, though there will be a number of interesting moments due to the lack of nominees of color.
- And a ceremony that I think will get done in time.
- Oh, and we could....I say could....see a Lady Gaga Oscar for Til It Happens to You. A POWERFUL song from the documentary The Hunting Ground.
Enjoy the Ceremony....it's going to be a fun night.
